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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."